If greenhouse gas emissions keep rising at the current rate, scientists predict a global temperature rise of 2–6 °C by 2100. A warmer world will lead to other changes in the climate, including changing rainfall patterns, melting ice, rising sea level, faster evaporation and more frequent heat waves. These could affect food supplies, water resources, health, homes and other infrastructure worldwide. Although the details of impacts in any specific region are uncertain, understanding the risks can help governments prepare for changes – and provide people around the world with an opportunity to make their homes, food and water supplies more resilient.
Is there a backup plan?
What if greenhouse gas emissions keep rising? Emitting gases such as carbon dioxide and methane traps more heat in the atmosphere, warming the Earth and changing the climate. Reducing emissions would reduce the warming.
But scientists estimate we’d need about a 50% cut in global emissions by 2050 to have a reasonable chance of avoiding the more damaging impacts of climate change.
Some scientists have suggested an alternative – perhaps we could stop global warming by blocking out some sunlight. This is called ‘solar geoengineering’.
It would cool the planet, like putting up a giant sunshade. But we’d be tinkering with a very complex system, which might have unintended consequences. We would also have to continue geoengineering for decades or even centuries. www.sciencemuseum.org.uk/ClimateChanging/ClimateScienceInfoZone/Exploringourfuturechoices/3point7
Atmosphere …exploring climate science Science Museum, London
How easy would it be to cut carbon dioxide emissions?
Almost all our activities cause emissions of greenhouse gases, mostly carbon dioxide. From lighting and heating, to food and drink, to the clothes we wear and the buildings we live in – manufacturing, transporting and using these things requires power, which we produce mostly by burning fossil fuels. This is the source of nearly two-thirds of human greenhouse gas emissions and contributes to climate change. The more we emit, the more the world warms. But if we stopped all emissions straight away transport, electricity and supply chains would grind to a halt and our daily lives would be severely disrupted.
But if we take no action and emissions keep increasing, our lives are likely to be affected by ever more severe impacts of a warming world. So instead, governments are weighing up the costs of cutting emissions against the costs of adapting to climate change. Scientists estimate that to have a reasonable chance of avoiding the more damaging climate impacts we’d need about a fifty per cent cut in global emissions by 2050. www.sciencemuseum.org.uk/ClimateChanging/ClimateScienceInfoZone/Exploringourfuturechoices/3point2
The power generated by burning fossil fuels is integral to our way of life. So making rapid emissions cuts would have substantial implications for human infrastructure and society. Instead, governments are weighing up the costs of cutting emissions against the costs of adapting to the likely impacts of climate change.
Could the world emit less carbon dioxide?
We burn fossil fuels to generate power, but this emits greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2), which warms the Earth. A third of CO2 emissions come from electricity production. Two-thirds of this electricity is generated by burning fossil fuels. The rest already comes from low-carbon technologies, such as nuclear, solar and wind power. Scientists estimate that to have a reasonable chance of avoiding the more damaging impacts of climate change through emissions cutting we’d need to cut global greenhouse gas emissions fifty per cent by 2050. This would mean replacing fossil fuels with low-carbon alternatives on a large scale.
We don’t yet have enough low-carbon infrastructure to power the world without fossil fuels, and building it will take time and money. So how can we cut emissions quickly without disrupting power supplies? One option is to put CO2 into the ground instead of the atmosphere. We could keep burning fossil fuels but capture the CO2 before it’s emitted and bury it underground. And we could preserve large areas of forest, which absorb CO2, storing it in the trees and soil. Another option is to use energy more efficiently, cutting the amount wasted across national power grids and insulating homes and buildings better so they lose less heat. Yet another option is to reduce the amount of energy we use by switching off unnecessary lighting and appliances and by cycling or taking public transport instead of driving. Experts estimate we could cut emissions thirty per cent by 2050 using these types of measures alone, though some of them could be expensive and challenging to put into practice.
www.sciencemuseum.org.uk/ClimateChanging/ClimateScienceInfoZone/Exploringourfuturechoices/3point3
Energy/Water saving tips
Water efficient shower head
Lower flow taps
Devices to alert you to how much water you use
Eco showerdrop
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